All six Brazilian clubs enter as favorites in the Libertadores opener. Botafogo leads Sul-Americana odds at 75%, per Betnacional’s analysis.
The Copa Libertadores and Copa Sudamericana 2026 group stages begin this Tuesday (April 7), with Brazil fielding 13 clubs across both competitions. Betnacional, a licensed Brazilian sports betting platform operating since January 2025, released its probability breakdown for every Brazilian club’s opening match.
Brazil on course for another Libertadores title
Brazil has won the Libertadores in each of the last seven editions — a dominant run that included five all-Brazilian finals. Betnacional puts the country’s chances of claiming the 2026 title at 64% (odds of 1.3), with Argentina a distant second at 15%, followed by Ecuador (7%) and Colombia (6%).
Libertadores: all six Brazilian clubs favored
Fluminense carries the highest win probability among Brazilian Libertadores clubs in Round 1, at 58% against Deportivo La Guaira in Venezuela. Defending champion Flamengo follows with 51% against Cusco (Wednesday, April 8), while Palmeiras — chasing their fourth title — holds 48% away at Junior Barranquilla in Cartagena.
Mirassol makes history as a Libertadores debutant and enters with 45% against Argentina’s Lanús on home soil. Cruzeiro, returning after a seven-year absence, holds 38% against Barcelona de Guayaquil. The tightest call belongs to Corinthians — winless in nine league games and now under Fernando Diniz — who face Platense with only 35%, in what Betnacional rates as essentially a three-way toss-up.
Sudamericana: Botafogo the round’s biggest favorite
In the Copa Sudamericana, Botafogo stands out as the overwhelming favorite of the entire Brazilian opening round, with 75% win probability (odds of 1.27) hosting Caracas at Nilton Santos Stadium. The Venezuelan side needed a penalty shootout just to qualify and returns to face a Botafogo side that won both previous meetings between the clubs — way back in the 1993 Copa Conmebol.
São Paulo, the only Brazilian side with a Sudamericana title (2012), faces Boston River in Uruguay as a strong favorite at 58%. Grêmio (43%) and Red Bull Bragantino (42%, runners-up in 2021) also enter their matches with the edge. However, Vasco — managed by Renato Gaúcho — face an uphill task in Buenos Aires against Barracas Central, with just 22%. Santos travel to altitude in Cuenca, Ecuador (2,500 meters above sea level), and hold a narrow 33%, while Atlético Mineiro, last edition’s finalist, sits at 36% in Venezuela — with a draw actually the most likely outcome at 37%.
Brazil has a 64% chance of producing the 2026 Libertadores champion, according to Betnacional’s analysis.
Event Info
- Barcelona de Guayaquil vs. Cruzeiro — Apr. 7, Libertadores group stage
- Deportivo La Guaira vs. Fluminense — Apr. 7, Libertadores group stage
- Mirassol vs. Lanús — Apr. 7, Estádio Maião, Mirassol, Libertadores
- Junior Barranquilla vs. Palmeiras — Apr. 8, Estádio Olímpico Jaime Morón León, Cartagena, Libertadores
- Platense vs. Corinthians — Libertadores group stage
- Cusco vs. Flamengo — Apr. 8, Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega, Peru, Libertadores
- Barracas Central vs. Vasco — Buenos Aires, Sudamericana group stage
- Boston River vs. São Paulo — Uruguay, Sudamericana group stage
- Deportivo Cuenca vs. Santos — Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar, Cuenca (2,500m altitude), Sudamericana
- Montevideo City vs. Grêmio — Uruguay, Sudamericana group stage
- Puerto Cabello vs. Atlético Mineiro — Venezuela, Sudamericana group stage
- Botafogo vs. Caracas — Nilton Santos Stadium, Rio de Janeiro, Sudamericana
- Carabobo vs. Red Bull Bragantino — Estadio Misael Delgado, Venezuela, Sudamericana
- Odds and probabilities: Betnacional (betnacional.bet.br)
